The 10 Largest Economies in 2030

Mirror, mirror on the wall, Which will be the richest countries of them all? I’ve compiled a list based on current growth trends and statistical prediction, and what's in store is a shift in economic power the likes of which the world has never seen.

In times of economic turmoil, any one of us can be discouraged by the media’s narrow focus on gloomy (but nonetheless short term) economic prospects. That is why it’s imperative to, every so often, lift our heads up and glance at the long term global macroeconomic trends, which in a historic perspective have always had a positive development (albeit with significant setbacks).

For instance, a decline in US demand following a domestic recession has proven not to be as detrimental to the world’s exporters as many had feared, in part because other countries (notably in the Far East) are showing a powerful consumer demand of their own. It is my hope that this list will instill in the reader some degree of optimism, as the positive economic development of the world as a whole becomes apparent.

The 2030 figures are arrived at using the average annual growth rate over the next five years as projected by the International Monetary Fund in their April 2010 World Economic Outlook. All figures are in PPP terms and in billions of USD.

Notes of interest

 - The Chinese economy will be the largest in the world by 2016

 - India will have the third largest economy within four years

 - Among the ten richest countries, four will be Asian, three will be American and three will be European. (The African continent is conspicuously absent from the list, but they too will see a tremendous rise in living standards over the next couple of decades)

But enough talk, here's the list:

 

10. United Kingdom

Current GDP (IMF-list): $2,181

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $2,642

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 3.9%

Estimated GDP 2030: $4,702

 

9. Mexico

Current GDP (IMF-list): $1,549

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $2,067

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 5.9%

Estimated GDP 2030: $4,907

 

8. Indonesia

Current GDP (IMF-list): $1,027

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $1,531

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 8.3%

Estimated GDP 2030: $5,075

 

7. Germany

Current GDP (IMF-list): $2,932

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $3,449

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 3.3%

Estimated GDP 2030: $5,619

 

6. Brazil

Current GDP (IMF-list): $2,181

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $2,878

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 5.7%

Estimated GDP 2030: $6,611

 

5. Russia

Current GDP (IMF-list): $2,218

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $2,944

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 5.8%

Estimated GDP 2030: $6,878

 

4. Japan

Current GDP (IMF-list): $4,308

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $5,070

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 3.3%

Estimated GDP 2030: $8,266

 

3. India

Current GDP (IMF-list): $4,001

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $6,384

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 9.8%

Estimated GDP 2030: $25,942

 

2. United States:

Current GDP (IMF-list): $14,256

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $18,029

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 4.4%

Estimated GDP 2030: $33,785

 

1. China

Current GDP (IMF-list): $10,050

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $17,120

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 11%

Estimated GDP 2030: $83,778

Caveat

 - Unlike the IMF, I don’t think China will grow by an annual 11 per cent until 2030. But even if China's explosive growth slows to 8.5, their GDP will still be nearly 60 trillion (roughly four times the size of the current US economy).

 - I also share The Economist’s view that India’s growth could well outpace that of China in the coming years.

 - The IMF’s predicted annual growth of the US economy at 4.4% appears to me overly optimistic, particularly in light of their increasing budget deficit, federal debt and (potentially very deleterious) quantitative easing.

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Comments

[new balance]

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[harry]

South Korea is missing from the list.

[adam]

I think by this time, the trade restrictions will be in place, cutting imports with China. The United States is becoming friendly with India.

[aaa]

The growth rates for all these countries are too high, and especially China. China will not grow at 11% OR 8.5% for the next 20 years. Even now it is trying to slow its growth to rein in inflation. For the next decade, China's growth is going to slow down to 7%, and in the next it will slow down to 4~5% level.

[Christian Nesheim]

I think you're right about the growth rates estimate being too high for China, which is why I wrote that in the bottom part of the post. However, these numbers are the IMF's not mine. I would agree that somewhere between a 7-9 average is more plausible.

[Sébastien]

Your real growth rate estimations seem to be too high as lectors said. Indonesia, Russia and even Brazil will not keep these growths levels. THe Western countries don't have enough this growth rates nowadays and these will decreases with the time and the lack of innovations.

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I think U.K. will be below 10 rank.

[Yale Economic Professor]

Your data is horribly wrong. Where did you get this data? Did you just make it up?

[Goldman Sach Stock Broker]

China is a communist country and it will be very hard for there country not to encounter problems with there people.
The economy of China can not be predicted precisly, therefor your data can not be correct, and with China unstable economy
investors such as myself won't put money into China.

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mexico will be the 5th most powerfull country in 2040

[Interior Accessories]

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[turgut]

Turkey will become the world's 10th largest economy by 2023, a top Turkish official declared yesterday. Ministry for Industry and Trade Zafer Çağlayan said, "Our goal is to list Turkey among the top 10 economies in the world by 2023, when we celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the republic."

Addressing a group of party members over the weekend, Çağlayan noted the changes Turkey was experiencing in all sectors, saying: "Just five years ago, we were the 26th largest economy in the world. Now we've jumped to 17th place." He went on to say that the transition did not come easily, citing "a lack of structural reforms and mismanagement in the economy" as major factors preventing Turkey's growth in the past.

[America 1]

The US must take there advantage of being entwined in the Chinese economy and bring it down while we have the Chance because if we don't by 2030 a trade war will become a China-US war because Russia is being increasingly irritated with China and the EU won't help the US.

[Nik S]

are you crazy. China will be 1 billion people or less by 2030. At 60 trillion it will be $ 60 K per capita GDP for China. US today is $ 50 K per capita. Given hundreds of millions of Chinese will be in agricultural and lower end jobs who is going make millions of dollars to generate the $ 60K per capita average. And US will be at what 500 million people at 33 trillion or 70 K per capita. Unlikely to happen. Jobs will disappear at $ 60K per capita in China and come back to the US. Not only that it is impossible for the worlds economy to reach the level of GDP you are talking about. Total global GDP is not even 60 trillion let alone China's getting to 60 trillion.

[Fraser Marlow]

I am confused by your current (2010) GDP numbers. They agree with IMF, WB and CIA published figures for all countries except for china (currently 4.8B not 10B) and India (currenly ~1.5B not 4B) - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) or the correct graph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2010_Nominal_GDP.jpg

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[Herve Leger]

Well said. I appreciate your thinking

[Ozan]

Where is Turkey? Where is South Korea? Turkey and South Korea will be among the top 10 by 2030.

The forecast is too optimistic for the western world! Who believes that US will grow 4.4%? Who believes that UK will be in the top 10? I believe this forecast is prepared by ethnic English experts :) US is in stagnation. UK is not producing anything, how will they be in the 10th position? By consuming only? By draining other nations'
natural resources? How?

[ali]

I think, turkey and south korea should be at the list instead of UK and germany.

[Alex]

Turkish population will be around 100 million with GDP per capita of 30.000 USD according to Goldman Sachs. So it will become in top 10 also South Korea.

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[Erdogan]

Turkey is missing in that list.

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