5 Futurists on the Single Most Significant Technologic Development of the Next 20 Years

I interviewed David Pearce, George Dvorsky, Michael Anissimov, Phil Bowermaster and Aaron Saenz. The answers they gave me are guaranteed to astonish you.

I’ve previously written about how the world is changing faster than we can comprehend and how things will be inexpressibly different in just a few years’ time. But you needn’t take it from me: Here are five experts’ opinions on how the world will transform in the coming decades. Some answers are succinct and to the point, while others are more elaborate.

The question: If you had to guess, what will be the single most significant technological development in the coming twenty years, and why?

Aaron Saenz. Writes for Singularity Hub. Aaron is a Harvard graduate and has a master’s degree in atomic molecular and optical physics. He has worked in the Killian Research Group at Rice University, and has written and edited for, among others, McGraw-Hill, Princeton Review and Scholastic Wiley.

"The single most significant technological development in the coming 20 years will be the widespread adoption of human stem cells to treat an extraordinary range of medical conditions, from organ failure to Alzheimer's. Unlike many other exciting technologies that may make progress in the next 20 years, stem cells have already reached a stage where they are regularly making major breakthroughs. We've seen a 10 year old child in the UK have a new trachea grown inside his throat using his own stem cells. Bladders and blood vessels are close behind. There's also been progress with stem cells treating blood conditions, blindness, joint conditions, heart damage, etc, etc.

In 20 years this technology won't be experimental, it will be universal. The benefits - extraordinary healing of conditions that have few meaningful treatments - will make stem cells a popular and revolutionizing therapy in the field of medicine. This technology is here, it is growing, and in 20 years we will have developed a diverse arsenal of stem-cell tools that will constitute a major part of every hospital around the world.

'Incurable conditions' will be fewer, and millions will be able to live normal lives thanks to stem cell treatments. Billions will be able to live longer and healthier lives as stem cells repair and replace their failing bodies. Stem cells represent healing and longevity in one place, and they are already on their way here. Their continued development will be the single most impactful change in technology in the next two decades."

David Pearce. Co-founder of World Transhumanist Association and the Abolitionist Society, currently Director of BLTC Research. Known as the author of the Hedonistic Imperative, in which he describes how technology will eventually permit us to abolish suffering altogether.

"I predict the development of quantum computers will revolutionize our root metaphor of mind, life and the multiverse. The development of immersive virtual reality technologies will revolutionize our entertainment, sexual and social lives. Progress in neuroscience will deliver safe and sustainable therapies for mood enrichment.

But from an ethical perspective, I think the single most important technological development will be the mass-production and consumption of in vitro meat. At present, billions of nonhuman animals endure lives of unimaginable misery in our factory farms. Pigs, for example, have the intelligence - and capacity to suffer - of a human two-year-old toddler. Animal activists argue on ethical grounds that we should close the death-factories and adopt a cruelty-free vegan diet. Yet I reckon the only realistic way to close down the machinery of exploitation and killing will be to develop cheap and delicious in vitro meat of a taste and texture indistinguishable from the flesh of slaughtered animals. The global adoption of a cruelty-free diet will mark a major evolutionary transition in the development of civilisation. Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is time-scales."

Read more about the cutting edge of in vitro meat development at www.new-harvest.org

Michael Anissimov. Media Director of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, owner of the world’s most popular transhumanist blog, Accelerating Future. He also co-founded the Immortality Institute while still in high school. He has consulted for the Metuselah Foundation and Kurzweil Technologies.

"Possibly molecular manufacturing. Why? Because it would usher in a new Industrial Revolution and could potentially be very dangerous."

Phil Bowermaster. Writer of The Speculist, a very popular blog about emerging technologies and possibilities. Phil has fifteen years of work experience in IT and Telecommunications, and has a master’s degree in technical communication from the University of Colorado. He has spent years working abroad in Russia, England, Hungary and Malaysia.

"The most significant technological development that we can expect to see over the next 20 years represents the completion of a process which has been several decades in the making. It can be viewed one of two ways:

1. The migration of human intelligence to a new substrate, accompanied by a massive increase in the speed and power of human intelligence

2. The emergence of a new entity, a hybrid of machine and human intelligence, which will replace human intelligence as the primary power on the planet

The principal driver of this shift will be the emergence of a conversational user interface between human beings and computers. Natural language interaction will set of an explosion of new capabilities that will ultimately transform all aspects of society: education, industry, government, the arts, science, entertainment, and -- because of the ubiquity and ever-increasing importance of social networks -- the very fabric of society itself, the fundamental interactions and relationships between people."

George Dvorsky. Producer of the award-winning Sentient Developments blog and podcast, and co-founder and president of the Toronto Transhumanist Association. He is on the board of directors for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and Humanity+. Interviews with George have been featured in the Guardian and the BBC, among others.

"Interface technologies that bridge the gap between the human brain and the internet. In twenty years, our interaction with the web will be so seamless that it will be considered an exosomatic organ. Implications include ubiquitous access to all knowledge stores on the net and "techlepathy."

No matter who turns out to be right in 2030, one thing is certain: The world as we know it will change beyond recognition.

So, what do you think will be the single most significant technologic development of the next 20 years? Do you agree with one of the experts or do you see a different game-changer approaching? Leave a comment.

Phil also has a survey up on is blog The Speculist, to see in which area readers think the greatest leap in technology will come in the next twenty years, and I encourage you all to participate.

 

Comments

[Dennis Walker]

The Scientific rational world view will increasingly dissolve into the legacy of 'spiritual technology'/ wisdom traditions maintained by Indigenous peoples around the world. Specifically, I believe Ayahuasca ( potent psychoactive brew containing DMT used for millenia by Amazonian Tribes to connect with deeper levels of consciousness/ sentient non-human intelligences)and other "Plant Teachers" such as psilocybin mushrooms, peyote, and ibogaine will become quite relevant and important to "The Global Village" as they are slowly legitimized / investigated by intellectuals from industrialized societies.

[Christian Nesheim]

Hey Dennis :D

You know, David Pearce, who is mentioned above, probably sees eye-to-eye with you on that particular issue. He proposes the use of psychedelic drugs as a means to abolish suffering among sentient beings.

You and I shall have to go to Peru together soon and revel in some eye-opening ayahuasca experiences with the natives, like we talked about. See you in January my friend :D

[Thealloriginal]

I think the single greatest development in the next 20 years will be world peace. Transhumanism has left billions behind with its trajectory to "cure" and "augment" rather than focusing on the most pressing issue, which is that humans kill each other at an alarming rate (excluding outright homicide between two individuals). Transhumanism has failed to communicate a progressive message for the future that will include a fitter, more creative, and more satisfying life for the billions. If we were to just use the technology of today to help rather than kill/maim/enslave/control, then the world would start to heal itself culturally and be ready for the technologies coming ahead. Unfortunately, Transhumanists have failed to understand this vital linkage to prevent a world of 'haves' and 'have-nots'. There will not be a few super-intelligent people, because those left behind will ultimately be killed or revolt or both.

In effect, the greatest achievement in the next 20 years will be a new philosophy borne out of the outdated Judeo/Christian/Muslim traditions that can satisfy the human curiosity for 'why we are here' and enjoin our respective cultures into a coherent vision of our shared future. Failing to inculcate this maxim will simply result in de-facto slavery of the 'have-nots'.

[Joe]

Much of this sounds like wishful thinking, not actual predictions. The greatest development is very likely something nobody has yet thought of and may be so absurd that it would be dismissed out-of-hand by today's futurists. (Facebook being a perfect example of the absurd twenty years ago.)

That said, if I were forced to make a prediction, it would be in batteries. Problem is that I'm not sure the breakthrough will happen in twenty years. Fifty maybe, but we've been stuck for a century on this problem so twenty years seems short.

One thing I do know; the world will pretty much be the same as today. Computers will be much faster and much smaller, but we'll still use them to listen to music, talk to other people and find bad directions. Software will still crash, people will still complain about lousy reception and laptops will still have crappy screens and touchpads and failing the leap forward in batteries, the same lousy run time (albeit with graphics that will be astonishing.)

Oh, and kids will still be fighting over who uses the stupid gaming console. (And my great-grandchildren will wonder what those shiny discs are that are lying around my house.)

I can also safely predict that the leading software companies will announce a drag-and-drop programming language that will allow anyone to be a programmer. It will fail like all the other tries, but not before middle managers everywhere spent a boat load of money on it.

[Pawn]

Telepresence. It's next.

[Jeremy]

I predict, that man will not be here in twenty years. Those of us who do manage to survive will spend our days eking out an existence purposed in two endless debates. What could have been, but didn't. And Why. A third conversation will be had though notably less popular. When the messiah will return. This will be the only surviving art form, Comedy. If we manage to survive long enough to rebuild the basis of an economy or similar facsimile our currency will depict a cockroach embodying the virtue of the human race. And if there is a god, he will come strolling along. In an immaculate stroke of Irony and justice he will bend over to observe us for brief moment before crushing us under his heel.

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[Alexxarian]

The biggest development won't be technological, it will go infinitely much deeper than that. You will all realize who you are.

www.teleologicalevolution.com

[Prakash Chandrashekar]

I believe technologies that allow greater and easier sharing of goods, like zipcar (cars), kinko's (printers).

technological trends pointing towards this
- most rich markets are saturated. so, you have to reach out to bottom of the pyramid. For items like soaps and shampoos, you can have small packets, but for many macroscopic items, it is better to share.

- sustainability and energy issues might make mass production aimed at the consumer slightly more difficult than in the past.

[Brad Arnold]

The single most significant technological development in the next twenty years will be the emergence of a revolutionary clean cheap and abundant energy production technology. Candidates now include the BlackLight Process, or Dr Craig Ventor's 4th Generation Fuel Production. With energy being virtually no barrier, hopefully produced in a decentralized fashion, virtually every human and environmental need can be addressed mechanically (i.e. energy=work=time=life).

By the way, I recommend to all who read this to extend their life using the CRDiet(www.crdiet.org). If we can live until mid-century, we can possibly life for centuries more! I am part of the first generation of transhumanists, and I want you to be a part of it too:)

[Reno Bloodsworth]

Nanotechnology will the big breakthrough of the next 20 years. There's no doubt about it. Whether it is Eric Drexler's diamondoid mechanosynthesis or molecular nanotechnology the world to come will be changed beyond today's recognition.

[Jordan Trunner]

It's relatively apparent that there's no tricky point (very little really difficult) on earth. if you happen to make up your thoughts to accomplish it, you will definitely complete your stop. That stands to cause.

[George Webb]

Two words - google googles: Cameras built into special glasses you wear that use pictures of what you are looking at to search on what you see. Huge software developments will come from doing internet background searches on everything you see just by looking at it. The longer you look at something, the more your search engines will crank on the object of interest. You will refine search by just looking in the direction of decision trees that are displayed on the inside of more advanced "google googles".

Part of the problem of these utopian visions is they don't always include the dystopian flip side the technology brings. Be on the lookout for stealth camera glasses that let you secretly record everything you see as well. The incredible organization of knowledge on the internet that google developed comes at the cost of the Facebooks with their cyberbullying and privacy intrusions.

I look at human motivation to predict the future because it has always predicted the past correctly. Facebook succeeded not because Havard guys decided to steal and upload Havard girls pictures. Myspace already had far more pictures of women. It succeeded because Harvard girls wanted to check out Havard guys future prospects and so on throughout the Ivy League. This was a very subtle but crucial difference with MySpace. The hidden camera brought down DeLorean, and that's why we don't have more cars now with gull wings. The micro hidden camera will win the test of time unfortunately.

We are at the infancy of "google googles", much like the first lens grinders of the Renaisance.

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